Comments on: Warren Buffett on the U.S., China, Korea from CNBC

By: gerry

gerry — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 18:07:55 +0000

The emergence with the BRIC countries, there will be more fires to put out or collectively, the other countries can shoulder the fall?

Very good question. My insight is that the boom is being fueled by the cycle I described. What would happen if one or more BRIC countries faltered? Tough to say really. China’s recession or market crash would have the largest negative effect on the rest of the world. Probably would need more than 1 country crashing to have a big worldwide effect.

By: moneyrelations

moneyrelations — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 05:31:38 +0000

Brian,

Thanks so much for opening my eyes to the consumer credit risks in Russia!

By: brian cole

brian cole — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 00:04:30 +0000

Credit Nation On The Brink?
Blowing credit bubbles in Russia’s financial sector By Yasha Levine
http://exile.ru/print.php?ARTICLE_ID=8510&IBLOCK_ID=35

By: moneyrelations

moneyrelations — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 23:20:30 +0000

Hi gerry,

Whenever everyone piles on, it starts to get bubbly and the value in regards to the risks/rewards get skewed. Interesting viewpoint that it might be the BRIC countries that might be the cycle breaker.

The world economy is so interlinked now. Do you think with the emergence with the BRIC countries, there will be more fires to put out or collectively, the other countries can shoulder the fall?

By: gerry

gerry — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 18:17:36 +0000

Regarding decoupling from USA. I actually fear that the last sentence of the article is somewhat correct. I wonder how much of the emerging market boom is due to Pollyannish cycle of “we build, so we need commodities/materials, so our commodities/materials economy goes up, so we build more, so we need more commodities/materials…” If this cycle breaks at some point, we may get a severe worldwide recession. And the cycle breaker may not be USA anymore. It may be one or more of BRIC countries